Minturn Nut Archives

Shipments for May were off a bit at 54.4 million lbs. compared to last May at 56.9 million lbs. The primary reason for this is supplies have become tight. When availability tightens, prices increase and sales soften. Total shipments for the year are sailing along at 89.4 million lbs. ahead of last year's record. With commitments (sold not shipped) sitting at 106.6 million lbs., our earlier projection of shipping 832 million lbs. should be reached and possibly exceeded. The best news: it appears that all these almonds have been consumed upon reaching their destination and not held for speculative positions. As the industry transitions into new crop, the Carry-in will be at a historical low and the pipeline should be cleared out waiting for new crop arrival.

2002 Crop Estimate

Most of you have heard by now that the Subjective Estimate handed down by the CASS was 940 million meat lbs. The 940 million-meat lbs. is based on 530,000 producing acres. The Industries reaction felt the number to be fair and accurate for now. The Objective Estimate is scheduled to be released June 27th. The CASS claims the crop is behind in maturity so they may be forced to push the announcement back a week or two.

Grower Appreciation BBQ

Our 3rd Annual Grower Appreciation BBQ was held May 3rd. We felt it was an overwhelming success. There were lots of people, lots of food, and lots of “industry talk”. It is great to have the chance to visit with all our growers and other guests. Congratulations to the contest winners each receiving a $100.00 check.

Two more winners are “waiting in the wings”. The Objective Estimate & the Final Incoming Pounds (Dec. 31, 2002).

Market Influences

One of the more difficult tasks in the almond business is deciding when to sell, and how much to sell. There are many factors to consider when making these decisions. Fortunately, today we have positive news influencing the market place. Here are a few of those factors: record shipments for 2001 crop, manageable carry-in, weakened dollar and improved confidence among growers and handlers. The negative factors today are: a projected record 2002 crop, unrest in Middle East and a fragmented sellers base. Then there are pivotal factors that may swing either way, positive or negative such as: voluntary reserve, less processing capacity (two of the larger handlers closing down), plus the harvest may be late. You can see there are many aspects to consider when marketing and selling almonds. Because of the difficulties attached with trying to project the outcome, we continue to take the best available business each week. Trying to "time the market" could be a questionable move. Our goal is to deliver the grower a competitive return on a timely basis. In order to accomplish our goal we must ship early and fast and avoid a large uncommitted position going into spring.