May 2004 NEWSLETTER

8800 South Minturn Road
Le Grand California 95333 USA
Office 559-665-8500
FAX 559-665-8588

Almond Industry Position Report

Carry-in August 1, 2003
2003 Net Marketable Crop (Received to date)

April 2004 (Million Lbs.)

162.0
991.1

311.7
668.7

Total Sold

Uncommitted Inventory (Not Sold)

980.4

172.7

Position Report

The disappearance of California Almonds continues on another record pace for the year. Shipments for the year now stand at 806.8 million pounds putting the industry 27.4 million pounds ahead of last years record shattering pace with three months left to ship. April shipments were 71.3 million compared to 71.9 million pounds last year. However last years number was a bit misleading due to the Almond Board adding 8 million pounds of unreported shipments to catch up. Total crop receipts have grown to 1.032 billion pounds making the 2003 crop the 2 nd billion plus crop in a row. This is good news because the industry needs the supply. Looking at the committed (not shipped) number, it is quite possible the industry will ship 1.02 billion to 1.03 billion pounds for the year. Giving us a comfortable carry out of 123.1 to 133.1 million pounds. Considering the rapid growth the industry has experienced over the last three years, many feel availability will become tight as we transition into a new crop.

2004 Subjective Crop Estimate

The 2004 Subjective Estimate of 1,100,000,000 pounds was released Monday May 10 th. This is an increase of 6% over last years revised production of 1.04 billion pounds. Estimated acreage for the 2004 crop have been revised to 550,000 acres, an increase of 20,000 acres. This forecast is based on calls made to a random sample of almond growers during the April 22 nd to May 3 rd time period. The industry’s reaction felt the estimate to be fair and accurate for now. The 2004 Objective Estimate is to be released by C.A.S.S on Wednesday June 30 th at noon.

Grower Appreciation BBQ

Three weeks ago we held our annual Grower Appreciation BBQ. We had a great turn out, helping to make the BBQ a success. Again the food was the high light, followed by plant tours, games and industry talk. Joining us this years was the Almond Board of California displaying promotional information and answering industry questions. Congratulations to the game winners! Rick Wooding won the Subjective Estimate. John Becerra came closest to the actual number of 14,565 (almond kernels) in a 5-gallon bottle with a 14,600 guess! Both winners received $100.00.

Market Update

With the release of the Subjective Estimate last week the market has become quiet. Buyers view the 1.1 billion pounds as an ample supply with the harvest beginning in 2½ months. Time is on their side, hoping for softer pricing! Most growers feel the Subjective Estimate to be a bit high and are content to wait until the Objective Estimate is released before selling into a softer market. Either way, we look forward to a healthy market this coming year with supply and demand being in a “good” balance. California is going to enjoy having the largest percentage of the world supply ever, being in the 90% range. Shipments should continue to grow at a smaller percentage as pricing has climbed. We are projecting shipments to hit the 1.05 billion mark. Of course this is assuming the US dollar remains in a favorable position and the crop is in the billion pound plus neighborhood. Today’s grower prices could be the following: Nonpareils $1.85-$1.90 and all others $1.70-$1.75 prices contingent on final confirmation.

2003 Grower Pool Final

Final prices will be announced next month in our newsletter. We are confident once again our prices will be very competitive.

Buyer & Seller of Quality California Almonds