September 2004 NEWSLETTER

8800 South Minturn Road
Le Grand California 95333 USA
Office 559-665-8500
FAX 559-665-8588

Almond Industry Position Report

Carry-in August 1, 2004
2004 Net Marketable Crop (Received to date)

August 2004 (Million Lbs.)

148.9
143.3

169.8
248.3

Total Sold

Uncommitted Inventory (Not Sold)

418.1

(125.9)

Position Report

California almond shipments for August was through the roof hitting 78.6 million pounds compared to last years record of 66.6 million pounds. This big number was primarily accomplished because of this year’s early harvest. Marketable crop receipts now stand at 143.3 million pounds. The most positive news in this month’s position report was in commitments (but not shipped) sitting at 339.6 million pounds compared to last year at 213.4 million pounds.

2004 Crop Harvest

Harvest began a good two weeks earlier than last year. Quality started out better than last year but now that we’ve moved deeper into harvest the inedibles have increased in some cases. Ant damage seems to be the main culprit in our inedibles so far. Foreign material, chipped & scratch, and broken are on par with last year. The kernel size is again a problem this year with our most common size nonpareil being a 27/30 count. Crack-out ratios continue to lag behind last year 2-4 percent. The nonpareil crop production is equal to or slightly less than last years. It's still a bit early to forecast the pollinator’s crop. The most recent Almond Hullers and Processors estimate puts the crop at 1055.0 million pounds.

The Market

The world almond market continues to push upward and amaze us. Listed below are some of the key factors driving today’s market:

1) Weak dollar

2) Record demand

3) Pathetic Spanish almond crop

4) Shortage of nuts in world tree nut category

5) Consumer awareness of health benefits from eating nuts

6) Strong 2004 crop commitments

7) 10%-15% less world supply

8) Possibly a lighter 2004 crop than estimated

One month ago today, when prices were $.25-.35 lower across the board, buyers wanted to contract long term (January and future). Processors and growers were reluctant for two reasons, either unhappy with their sold positions or fearful prices would move up, which they have. Today buyers don't appear as eager to book long term fearing a pull back in prices. Prices have only been higher one other year. In 1995 when we only produced a half crop, making today’s market a bit nervous. Where the market goes from this point forward is tough to say. Most would like to see a “leveling off” on prices. One thing is for sure it's been a great ride to this point so lets enjoy it.

Current Market Prices

Based on today’s market levels, prices would be the following: Nonpareil $2.20 - $2.58 depending on sizes, all others $2.20 plus depending on size and grade.

Buyer & Seller of Quality California Almonds