February 2005 NEWSLETTER |
| Almond Industry Position Report - January 2005 |
Million Pounds |
| |
Carry In August 1, 2004 |
148.9 |
| |
2004 Net Marketable Crop (Received to date) |
948.8 |
| |
Sold (Shipped & Not Shipped) |
| |
|
Domestic |
295.2 |
| |
|
Export |
529.3 |
| |
|
Total Sold |
824.5 |
| |
Uncommitted Inventory (Not Sold) |
(273.2) |
| Position Report |
| For the month of January, shipments hit 77.6 million pounds, barely “nudging” out last years record of 77.0 million pounds. Year-to-date shipments now stand at 593.3 million pounds for a 15.5 million pound increase or approximately 3%. Total crop receipts stand at 988.4 million ponds. Hitting the billion pounds mark will be difficult with just one huller/sheller still running. The best news in today’s market place continues to be the “domestic” market. Year-to-date shipments sit at 179.3 million pounds up 12.8% from one year ago. Commitments are standing at 115.9 million pounds up 10.4% over a year ago. At today’s price levels it will be interesting to see if this trend continues. Right now supply rather than price could be our biggest obstacle or in other words: “Regardless of price if it’s gone you cannot buy it!” Availability will “truly” become an issue for those who have not covered their needs through summer |
| The Market |
Approaching bloom historically is a quiet time in the almond market. With supplies tightening and “supply & demand” in such delicate balance activity continues to be strong both on current and new crop. Nervousness and fear are driving both sides of the market. Weather (good or bad) during bloom and post bloom could influence this year’s market more than at any in the past. Let’s hope we receive good weather and set a better than average crop. Because of strong demand, a good crop may not cause reactionary price adjustments. |
| 2005 Crop Outlook |
Most growers are satisfied with bud the set. There appears to be enough bees’s to go around, but how strong will the hives be remains to be seen. One thing is for certain, the beekeepers held almond growers up “for ransom” this year. In some cases good ethics were left at the roadside in an effort to “push-up” prices. The bloom in early varieties is just beginning. The bloom appears to be progressing rapidly with February 14th forward being critical for pollination. Let’s hope weather cooperates. A comprehensive bloom report will be in next month’s newsletter. |
Next Pool Payment |
Minturn Nut Company will make another progress payment on Friday April 15th. The increase will be announced in next month’s newsletter. We have roughly 18% left to sell and are hopeful we can finalize in early summer similar to last year. |
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We have made changes and improved our website. You can find all past newsletters and important industry links. Plus coming soon . . . a calendar of events. |
