Almond shipments for this March were 75.2 million pounds, compared to 81.9 million pounds last March. This reduction is probably due to higher prices combined with the unwillingness of California handlers to sell (with hopes the price would continue to inch even higher). Shipments for the current year now stand at 737.7 million pounds, putting our industry 2.2 million pounds ahead of last years record pace. Total shipments for the 2004 crop should reach or slightly exceed a billion pounds (which is remarkable when considering the record price levels). That would put the “carry-in” for the 2005 harvest at approximately 100 million pounds.

In the industry, finding willing and motivated sellers in California is a difficult task for almond buyers and users. With the market prices continuing upward and the new 2005 crop not looking as good as one would hope, the California almond industry is content to hold on to what they have for the time being. We expect modest selling of the current crop with light selling on new crop until the Subjective Estimate is released on May 11th. Buyers are becoming very nervous as prices continue to climb. When the Subjective Estimate is released, trading may either become active or shut down all together depending on the size of the estimate (perhaps buyers and sellers may wait until the Objective Estimate is released on June 30th). If today’s prices continue, the 2005 crop could realize $3.35 for Nonpareils and $3.15 for all others.

Now that the almonds are ‘visible’ on the trees, crop estimates are coming in from up and down the state. We have heard ranges from 750 million pounds to over one billion pounds, with most industry sources agreeing somewhere between 850 and 900 pounds. Of the primary producing varieties, Nonpareil’s appear to be the most adversely affected followed by Butte ’s. Monterey ’s and Carmel ’s are consistently looking good with some regions looking better than others. Sizes should be much bigger this year due to the cooler spring and smaller nut counts. In general, the crop this year should be better than originally thought, considering the weather, compressed bloom, and the bee problems. The almond industry would have benefited more if there was a larger crop and a more stable price.

 

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